Providing insight to investors worldwide, the 2015 CFA Institute Global Market Sentiment Survey (GMSS) reflects the views and expectations of CFA Institute members — respected experts in the industry — on financial markets, integrity, and performance for the coming year.
Global economic growth expected to stagnate, outlook for local growth is mixed
Members expect a modest 2% growth in the global economy in 2015. Respondents in Europe are generally more optimistic about global economic growth than those in the Americas and Asia Pacific, where there are stronger concerns about developed economies weakening further and political instability.
Member estimates for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in their local markets vary widely.
Expected GDP growth rate for local markets in 2015
According to CFA Institute members surveyed, the expected GDP growth rates in 2015 for the for 8 out of 15 local markets, ordered from most optimistic to least, are: China (6.2%), India (5.8%), Hong Kong (3.1%), Singapore (2.3%), United States (2.2%), United Kingdom (1.8%), Canada (1.7%), Australia (1.7%). According to CFA Institute members surveyed, the expected GDP growth rates in 2015 for the remaining 7 out of 15 local markets, ordered from most optimistic to least, are: South Africa (1.6%), Germany (1.2%), Netherlands (1.0%), Switzerland (0.9%), Japan (0.9%), France (0.5%), Brazil (0.3%).
The Market Outlook for 2015
The United States and China are the top picks for equity market performance in the coming year, as was the case in the 2014 survey, this year followed by India and Russia.
Over the 15 months from 1 October 2014 to 31 December 2015, the S&P 500 index is expected to increase 4.8%, the EuroStoxx 50 by 1.9%, and the Nikkei 225 by 1.6%. Survey respondents predict the US 30-year Treasury bond yield to be 3.46%, up from 3.21% at 30 September 2014.
According to members, the top picks for equity market performance in 2015 are the United States (33%), China (9%), India (9%), and Russia (6%).
Explore Detailed Results for Key Topics
What Could Move Markets
According to the 2015 CFA Institute Global Market Sentiment Survey, members believe central bank policies, job creation, and consumption will continue to move global markets in a positive direction.
Continued accommodative central bank policies and increased focus on job creation and consumer consumption could have the strongest positive impact on global capital markets in 2015. Locally, members are optimistic about job creation but concerned about energy prices and what the end of quantitative easing means for their own markets.
Compare global and local data about what could move markets in 2015
Confronting Ethical Issues
According to the 2015 CFA Institute Global Market Sentiment Survey, 63% of members see the deficit in ethical culture within firms as the lead cause for lack of trust in the financial industry.
Over half of members point to a lack of ethical culture within financial firms as the leading cause of the current lack of trust in the financial industry. Better alignment of compensation with investor objectives, a zero-tolerance policy by top management for ethical breaches, and increased adherence to ethical codes and standards are the three most needed firm-level actions in the coming year to improve investor trust and confidence.